Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend.
.SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March.
Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections.
A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout.
Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.
Persons:
Warren Pies, Jerome Powell
Organizations:
Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank
Locations:
Silicon